PUSHING PAPER

Before I begin, let’s just establish up front that distance running is by far the best sport in the world, ever. I’m so unwilling to argue this that I won’t even state my reasons for thinking so. And for those out there who agree with me, this weekend marks a bona fide holiday: the Olympic Trials.

Ever since the Pens crapped out of the Finals, I’ve been counting down the days to this weekend. In fact, I’m so excited to get on with this post that I’m not even going to bother to write a proper introduction. We’re going straight to the event-by-event breakdown. For each (men’s) event I’ll list the most likely contenders, the general storylines, and the three runners I hope make the team. A beautifully simple sport demands a beautifully simple format.

800

Contenders: Khadevis Robinson, Nick Symmonds, Jacob Hernandez, Andrew Wheating, Duane Solomon, Sam Burley, Jebreh Harris, Jonathan Johnson

Storylines: Throughout all of 2008, the mens 800 Olympic spots have been favored to go to Khadevis, Symmonds, and someone else. A day before the Trials begin, this still looks to be the case, especially with the memory of the epic indoor nationals showdown (pictured above) fresh in everyone’s minds. Both Khadevis and Symmonds have had fine starts to their outdoor seasons, and since both are full-time pros, they’ve been able to gear their training solely toward the Trials without having to worry about conference and regional meets. However, with all that being said, the NCAA 800 was so impressive this year that it wouldn’t be entirely shocking to see Symmonds lose his spot (Khadevis is pretty much a lock). Symmonds’ PR is basically a full second better than any of the other contenders, but he hasn’t done enough outdoors to convince me he’s a sure thing. Hernandez, Wheating, and Solomon, we know, are ready to be pushed to the limit in a championship meet.

Who I’m Rooting For: Khadevis, Symmonds, and Burley. As will become clear, I love pretty much every distance runner in America (and the world, really), so my rooting interests come down to who I think will do best at the Olympics if they make it. Khadevis is an amazing, underrated runner. I’m probably as confident about him making the team as I would be any other athlete in any event. He’s a big meet competitor, and there’s every chance he will make the final in Beijing and contend for a medal. Symmonds’ ceiling is extremely high, plus he has immunity for life after taking down Yuriy Borzakovskiy at Pre last year. Burley is an obvious rooting interest for me because he’s an Ivy Leaguer who won NCAAs in 2003 and is a super nice guy. It’s been an up and (mostly) down five years for him, but with a SB of 1:45.58, he’s in his best form since his college years. I’d love to think he will make the team, but the last spot is almost certain to go to one of the three college guys.

1500

Contenders: Bernard Lagat, Alan Webb, Leonel Manzano, Lopez Lomong, Jon Rankin, Chris Lukezic

Storylines: That’s a short list but it’s hard to imagine the three spots going to anyone outside of those six, and really, I think everyone expects the team to be comprised of Lagat for sure, and then the best two out of Webb, Manzano, and Lomong. Not only is Webb’s fitness far and away the biggest story going into this meet, when it comes to him making the team, he’s the ultimate wild card. The best Webb has looked in a race in 2008 is “pretty effing bad.” That would be two weeks ago in an 800 in Indianapolis. At least he’s on the way up, because his performances leading up to that one could all be rated “dogshit at best,” including his startlingly disappointing performance at Pre. For Lagat, this meet is a speed bump for him. You know you’re going to make the team when your biggest concern heading into the Trials is if you’re running too well too soon. As for Lopez and Lomong, this meet will provide the biggest venue yet for their friendly rivalry. They always bring the best out of each other, and since going into the season it looked like it was going to be one or the other for the final Olympic spot, it would be unfathomable if either of them ran poorly this weekend.

Who I’m Rooting For: Lagat, Webb, and Lomong. Defending World Champ Lagat could win the gold, so he’s an obvious choice for me. It’s tough to not root Manzano, but he merely makes me feel good about US distance running, whereas Lopez makes me feel good about the overall direction of humanity. Not to go all ESPN on you, but Lopez is probably the most likable athlete in history outside of Rickey Henderson. And of course I am rooting for Webb for so many reasons. I’m rooting for him because if he gets into his best form, Olympic gold isn’t inconceivable. I’m rooting for him because it’s good for the sport when he does well. And I’m rooting for him just for his own sake. I can’t imagine how sad he would be if he didn’t make the team. I dread watching the post-race video on Flotrack of a crestfallen Webb trying to explain why he didn’t make it less than a year after setting the American mile record. I’m not optimistic.

3000 Steeplechase

Contenders: Anthony Famiglietti, Steve Slattery, Kyle Alcorn, Brian Olinger, Josh McAdams, Billy Nelson, Jake Morse

Storylines: The main storyline would have to be who isn’t running as opposed to who is. Dan Lincoln, one of my favorite runners, had Achilles surgery and won’t be running this year. Lincoln, the AR holder, would have been an overwhelming favorite, and his absence has a lot to do with my overall lack of knowledge and enthusiasm for the steeple this year. Famiglietti hasn’t had anything approaching his scorching build-up to last year’s meet, which is probably a good thing given how memorably he blew it there, failing to make Worlds somehow (to be fair, Lincoln was even worse). If Fam blows it again this year it will be a major, major surprise. Steve Slattery is another one of those runners who has had some rough times, but appears to be in decent form. Kyle Alcorn and Billy Nelson put on a great show at NCAAs. This should be a very wide open race.

Who I’m Rooting For: Fam, Slattery, and Max King. Fam is a total wacko — in a good way. I can’t think of a single person who dislikes him. I want Slattery to make the team because going into the 2004 Trials  it was basically a four man race between him, Lincoln, Fam, and Robert Gary for the three Olympic spots, and Slattery was the unlucky fourth. It’d be nice to see his patience rewarded. And as a Cornell alum, rooting for Max King is something I just have to do. He graduated a year before I joined the team, and is pretty much revered on the team. He doesn’t really have a shot to make it, but he should make the final, and if he does, I’ll have my fingers crossed for a miracle.

5000

Contenders: Lagat, Matt Tegenkamp, Chris Solinsky, Bobby Curtis, Brent Vaughn, Jonathan Riley, Bolota Asmerom, Adam Goucher

Storylines: Judging by how each of these runners have looked in 2008 thus far combined with past histories, this race comes down to who will be joining Lagat in Beijing. Tegenkamp is a huge favorite on paper, but he could easily miss out if he falters. He hasn’t raced much, so it’s hard to get a good read on him. Given the way his previous two seasons have gone, you have to think he’ll be fine. Bolota, Riley, Goucher clearly represent the old guard here, both in terms of age and citizenship. Bolota will almost certainly get fourth or fifth because he insists on wearing a speedsuit. Riley is probably just a little bit over the hill. Goucher should be way over the hill, but that doesn’t matter. Adam Goucher will probably be the 5000’s darkhorse candidate at the Trials until he’s 60 years old. If Goucher makes the team it will be astounding and predictable all at once; he’s that good of a competitor. Solinsky, Curtis, and Vaughn all represent the new guard, even though Vaughn is bald, went to college for fifteen years, and has a freaking kid.

Who I’m Rooting For: Lagat, Tegenkamp, and Solinsky. Lagat for the same reason as the 1500. (Right here is as good a place as any to say that Lagat is my choice to carry the American flag at the opening ceremony. He’s got credentials aplenty, seems like a fantastic person, and I personally think it would be great if a naturalized American were chosen for this. Lagat is a living embodiment of the American dream in a way that some jerk like Michael Phelps could never hope to be.) I’m rooting for Tegenkamp because when he was in college I always said he was the most overrated runner in the NCAA. I was always right. Then he turned pro and became incredible, barely missing a medal at Worlds last year, and enjoying two dream seasons. Rooting for Teg is the easiest thing in the world. And I want Solinsky to make the team because he has shown steady, hard-earned improvement each of the last seven years. No matter how talented a runner is, you can’t get better seven straight years without being incredibly dedicated and smart. But if the race is slow (which it almost certainly will be), Teg and Solinsky had better watch out for Curtis, who can outkick anyone save Lagat, and Goucher, because he has to know he’ll be too old in 2012. That thought alone might carry him to Beijing.

10000

Contenders: Abdi Abdirahman, Meb Keflezighi, Jorge Torres, Ed Moran, James Carney, Scott Bauhs, Fasil Bizuneh, Josh Rohatinsky

Storylines: As long as Abdi doesn’t get lost on the way to the track, and is wearing something other than Doc Martens at the start line, he’ll make the team. Olympic Hero Meb is trying to make one last Olympics after a poor showing at the marathon Trials. Everyone else is trying to make their first team, and the other two spots couldn’t possibly be more up for grabs. Any US distance fan would have to admit that the 10000 is lacking some luster compared to the other flat events. This is due primarily to the fact that young talents Ryan Hall and Dathan Ritzenhein have essentially bypassed the entire event, as they already made the team in the marathon. (Ritz is competing, but if he makes it won’t run the 10000 in Beijing.)

Who I’m Rooting For: Abdi, Meb, and Moran. Abdi is the only American who can run with the Africans at the Olympics. If he gets into sub-27:00 shape, we can always hope for a miracle bronze in Beijing. Plus he’s extremely likable, and Lagat’s BFF. Meb, as I said earlier, is an Olympic Hero. His silver in the 2004 marathon was a huge, huge component of a nearly flawless Olympics. As for Moran, it’s hard to imagine anyone having had a tougher road to get to this year’s Trials. He’s probably had as many injuries as the rest of the field combined. He ran the NCAA cross country meet with a broken foot once (and placed something like 27th). Talk about cred.

 

Obviously, I can’t wait to see how everything plays out. Sometime after the meet I’ll put up a full analysis. When it goes up depends on how long it takes me to get over feeling depressed for Webb.